Will Hilary Clinton still get a crack at the Oval Office?














The first is Bernie Sanders, who, contrary to expectation, won't go away. In fact, he keeps winning State primaries and caucuses. How dare he! And as if that wasn't enough, he's a man of integrity - an extremely rare commodity in politics anywhere so he sticks out like a sore thumb.... except it's not his thumb or any other part of his anatomy that's hurting. It's Hilary that's hurting.
Bernie's platform has started a movement and that movement is now HUGE. Voters - the younger ones (45 and below) especially - identify with his aims because they are about justice and equality for the American people who, over the last three decades, have been sidelined and sacrificed for the benefit of the 0.1% who own the majority of the wealth in the US and control the political establishment. And, of course, that includes Hilary Clinton. In stark contrast, no one owns Bernie. He has taken no donations from big corporations or Wall Street but, instead, has done the hitherto unthinkable: he's financed his campaign from millions of small donations from individuals - to date 8 million at an average of $27 dollars. That’s some groundswell!
This level of support tells a story; it's a story the Democratic National Committee don't want voters to hear. It's a story the media have virtually conspired to keep out of the news but has become increasingly difficult to suppress. From an early stage in his campaigning last year, Bernie has been filling convention centres and stadiums with supporters desperate to hear his message. In Oakland, California this week, he amassed an open air crowd of 60,000, according to the police. Meanwhile, Hilary struggles to fill more than community halls and the cafeteria at Walmart. For weeks now, voter surveys have consistently shown that in a Clinton / Trump contest, Hilary ties with or is weaker than Donald Trump. The same polls indicate that Bernie Sanders would beat Trump by 10 or more points.

That brings me to the second problem for the anointed one: Hilary's popularity. She's actually not very popular; in fact, she’s disliked by a large proportion of the electorate, Democrat as well as Republican, who don't trust her. Many Democrats will only vote for her because she is the Democratic candidate. This includes the massive contingent of women voters whose main aim is to have a woman in the White House, regardless of how awful she might be. However, a large percentage of those who support Bernie have said they won't vote for her because what she represents is so far removed from the future they have now glimpsed and want to see become a reality. The movement will continue whether or not Bernie Sanders gets the nomination. Hilary represents continuation of the status quo; the same old same old. In the eyes of many, she epitomises what is wrong with the US - a quasi-Republican, few of whose ‘achievements’ at State would bear thorough scrutiny. Far from uniting the party, a Clinton nomination is likely to dilute or even split support for the Democrats on election day.

The third issue is so-called 'Emailgate'. Since before campaigning began, Mrs Clinton has attempted to dismiss charges that she flouted the rules concerning use of her private email server for official communications when Secretary of State. Once again, however, it’s a problem that won’t go away. The State Department have been investigating as have the FBI. The former have now produced a damning report clear in its conclusion that she broke the rules and repeatedly ignored warnings about doing so. Considering the ultra sensitivity of much of the material she committed to the almost non-existent security of her private server, such behaviour is not just ill-advised; it is wilful neglect. Perhaps it could even be construed as treasonous. The Justice Department is close to deciding whether or not to indict Mrs Clinton; that decision could come just before the Democratic Convention.

Taken together, Hilary faces a perfect storm. Philadelphia is highly unlikely to be the smooth ride it once appeared; it is likely to be messy. No one can predict whether common sense or madness will prevail. Quite simply, though, it seems to be distilling down to one question: does the Convention want Hilary or a winner?


So, it finally seems as though Hillary Clinton might be staring at a different reality from the one she had anticipated as the "anointed one" - the one who had received enough nods and winks, in return for favours and promises, to guarantee securing the Democratic Party's nomination as Presidential candidate in November. It was her time ..or so she thought.  Now, so close to the number of delegates needed to secure nomination at the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia on 25th July, she has three major thorns in her side, all of which are hurting big time.

Nigel Austin 

author of The Robin Gibson series

​Posted 31st May 2016


Will Hillary Clinton still get a crack at the Oval Office?














The first is Bernie Sanders, who, contrary to expectation, won't go away. In fact, he keeps winning State primaries and caucuses. How dare he! And as if that wasn't enough, he's a man of integrity - an extremely rare commodity in politics anywhere so he sticks out like a sore thumb.... except it's not his thumb or any other part of his anatomy that's hurting. It's Hillary that's hurting.
Bernie's platform has started a movement and that movement is now HUGE. Voters - the younger ones (45 and below) especially - identify with his aims because they are about justice and equality for the American people who, over the last three decades, have been sidelined and sacrificed for the benefit of the 0.1% who own the majority of the wealth in the US and control the political establishment. And, of course, that includes Hillary Clinton. In stark contrast, no one owns Bernie. He has taken no donations from big corporations or Wall Street but, instead, has done the hitherto unthinkable: he's financed his campaign from millions of small donations from individuals - to date 8 million at an average of $27 dollars. That’s some groundswell!
This level of support tells a story; it's a story the Democratic National Committee don't want voters to hear. It's a story the media have virtually conspired to keep out of the news but has become increasingly difficult to suppress. From an early stage in his campaigning last year, Bernie has been filling convention centres and stadiums with supporters desperate to hear his message. In Oakland, California this week, he amassed an open air crowd of 60,000, according to the police. Meanwhile, Hilary struggles to fill more than community halls and the cafeteria at Walmart. For weeks now, voter surveys have consistently shown that in a Clinton / Trump contest, Hillary ties with or is weaker than Donald Trump. The same polls indicate that Bernie Sanders would beat Trump by 10 or more points.

That brings me to the second problem for the anointed one: Hillary's popularity. She's actually not very popular; in fact, she’s disliked by a large proportion of the electorate, Democrat as well as Republican, who don't trust her. Many Democrats will only vote for her because she is the Democratic candidate. This includes the massive contingent of women voters whose main aim is to have a woman in the White House, regardless of how awful she might be. However, a large percentage of those who support Bernie have said they won't vote for her because what she represents is so far removed from the future they have now glimpsed and want to see become a reality. The movement will continue whether or not Bernie Sanders gets the nomination. Hillary represents continuation of the status quo; the same old same old. In the eyes of many, she epitomises what is wrong with the US - a quasi-Republican, few of whose ‘achievements’ at State would bear thorough scrutiny. Far from uniting the party, a Clinton nomination is likely to dilute or even split support for the Democrats on election day.

The third issue is so-called 'Emailgate'. Since before campaigning began, Mrs Clinton has attempted to dismiss charges that she flouted the rules concerning use of her private email server for official communications when Secretary of State. Once again, however, it’s a problem that won’t go away. The State Department have been investigating as have the FBI. The former have now produced a damning report clear in its conclusion that she broke the rules and repeatedly ignored warnings about doing so. Considering the ultra sensitivity of much of the material she committed to the almost non-existent security of her private server, such behaviour is not just ill-advised; it is wilful neglect. Perhaps it could even be construed as treasonous. The Justice Department is close to deciding whether or not to indict Mrs Clinton; that decision could come just before the Democratic Convention.

Taken together, Hillary faces a perfect storm. Philadelphia is highly unlikely to be the smooth ride it once appeared; it could be messy. No one can predict whether common sense or madness will prevail. Quite simply, though, it seems to be distilling down to one question: will the Convention want Hillary or a winner?